Hormuz diversions plateau at 4x baseline as Navi Mumbai dwell rises to 21 days

Twenty weeks in, project44 data shows 114,779 total diversions as the Strait of Hormuz disruption defies the standard recovery curve

CHICAGO, July 24, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Twenty weeks into the Strait of Hormuz conflict, the latest data from project44 shows a disruption that is broadening. The findings come from project44's latest Supply Chain Insights report, which monitors weekly diversion volumes, port dwell times, and lane-level shifts across the region. Over the past 20 weeks, 114,779 total diverted shipments have been recorded on project44’s platform.

Key findings: Week 20

• Diversions are plateauing at 4x the pre-conflict baseline, not declining. Since hitting their lowest point in week 11, diversions have risen and then held steady over the past month. Week 20 saw 4,635 diverted shipments compared to a pre-conflict baseline of 1,118 weekly diversions. Most black swan events produce a recovery curve, with diversions spiking early and then rapidly declining. Hormuz has defied this model.
• Intra-Gulf lanes dominate diversion activity. The UAE and Saudi Arabia recorded the highest diversion volume, with diversion lanes concentrated through Jebel Ali, Khawar Fakkan, and Fujairah. Dubai (Jebel Ali) to Khawr Fakkan is the highest diversion lane, with approximately 3x more diversions than the next closest lane. Six of the top 10 diversion lanes touch Khawr Fakkan on one end, accounting for 61% of top 10 cumulative volume.
• Navi Mumbai import dwell has reached 21 days, more than 5x its pre-conflict baseline. As India absorbs cargo traditionally bound for the Middle East, congestion at the subcontinent's largest container port shows no sign of easing. Navi Mumbai shows the highest import dwell while Mundra is hovering at 10 days, 2x its pre-conflict average.
• Mersin and Abu Dhabi dwell continue to climb. Mersin, Turkey's largest container port, has seen average import dwell increase to 27.12 days. After dropping to 16 days after the Strait “reopened” Abu Dhabi export dwell has tripled over the past month and now stands at 48.5 days.
  
  

Twenty weeks of data tell a consistent story. This disruption is not following the standard recovery curve. Weekly diversions have held at four times their pre-conflict baseline for 12 consecutive weeks, a pattern that reflects the structural limits the carrier network cannot route around. The Strait handles roughly half the world's urea exports alongside crude oil, ammonia, sulfur, and the petrochemical feedstocks that supply global manufacturing. conflict is no longer contained to the Strait itself.

With the Houthis now extending their blockade to Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea, the disruption has entered a new phase, one defined not only by the volume of diversions but by the permanence of the network shifts forming around them. The data at week 20 suggests the consequences will continue to build before they ease.

Read the full Supply Chain Insights report at https://www.project44.com/supply-chain-insights/.  

About project44

project44 is the Decision Intelligence Platform for the modern supply chain. Its context-based AI transforms fragmented logistics management into unified intelligence, bringing certainty to global supply chain operations. With intelligent transportation management, end-to-end visibility, yard management and last mile solutions, and a preferred carrier network of 280,000 carriers, project44 connects over 1.5 billion shipments annually for over 1,000 leading brands in manufacturing, automotive, retail, life sciences, food and beverage, CPG, and oil, chemical and gas. Learn more at project44.com.

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